Wednesday, February 18, 2009

Cash Flow Statement




















Cash flow measures cash. It tells how much of money the company took in and paid out during the financial period usually divided into three sections: Cash flow from operations, their investing and their financing.

In Hong Xing case, all three sections are negative, showing outflow of cash of 574M. This is not good for investors.

1) The main concern is the 880M prepayment, deposit and other receivables which is 300% higher than previous year.

Look at previous year, both cash flow from operations and financing were positive resulting a in flow of cash of 2B.

2) The other concern is: 2008 has left only 1.982B cash for 2009, and if company needs additional money, it looks like it needs to get loan. Loan is expensive and it will affect profit in future.

Tuesday, February 17, 2009

Balance Sheet




















Balance sheet tells you the value of the things that a company owns and the amount it owes.

Using China Hong Xing as a example.

The things it owns: Assets= RMB4.4B

The things it owes: Liabilities and stockholders' equity = RMB4.4B

And, in balance sheet, Assets must = Liabilities + stockholders' equity.

Assets include cash, receivables, inventories (current assets=3.7B ), equipment and property (fixed assets) and land use right (Intangible assets, total non-current assets= 0.7B) etc.

Liabilities (Which is = 542M) mean account payable, accrued liabilities (Current liabilities = 271M), deferred taxes and rent (Long term liabilities or non-current liabilities = 271M).

From balance sheet, we know:

1) ROE = net profit / equity = 0.515/3.9B = 13.2%

Stockholders' equity(=3.9B) refers to capital paid and retained earning.

2) NAV = Total assets - liabilities and preference capital / #ordinary shares
NAV per share = 4.4B - 0.54B / 2.54B = RMB 0.152

3) Trade receivable of 478M which is higher than attributable net profit of 445M. Do you want to invest in a company that has such high Debt/Profit ratio of 1.07 (478/445)? If tomorrow all these debt cannot be collected, the company will declare loss.

4) Prepayment, deposit and other receivables are 4oo% (1.16B) higher than previous year (278M). What if all these receivable not collected next year?

5) Bank and cash balance have depleted by 25% to 1.98B from previous 2.65B. Somewhere in the report said that the previous 2.6B was raised through share placement and this was done when the share price hit around S$1. Who would invest at this time when the share is less than S$0.20.

Monday, February 16, 2009

Income statement



















This income statement tells if a company is making money (Profitable) or not (Loss money).

The above is the the most recent income statement of China Hong Xing for FY2008. It shows that the company has made a net profit after tax of RMB448.5M for FY2008.

We observe that:

1) The profit is higher by 7.7% than last year's 416.453M.

2) This is not proportional to the growth rate of its revenue and gross profit. Revenue grew by 41% and GP, 35%. Why? Because the expenses are very high.

3) While revenue has increased by 41%, COG has also gone up even higher by 45%, resulting slightly lower GP growth rate.

4) Selling, distribution and admin expenses were up much faster by 55% - 68%, eroding profit although financial expenses has reduced by 21%.

5) Further, provision of income tax expenses have doubled.

Income statement tells us China Hong Xing is a profitable company with good growth records (If we have previous years' revenue to show) and probably better growth opportunity (If the company can show us its projections) in future. It also tells us it would have performed better with more tighter cost control.

Of course, the expenses have gone up probably due to higher cost of distribution and promotion to counter keener market competition.

Usually, there would be some details in the financial report about what and how these revenue and expenses incurred. In Hong Xing case, they said:

1) their high growth of revenue was due to increase in retail network to 3800 outlets, improved product mix and higher selling price,

2) higher trade discount to distributors resulting in lower GP,

3) the higher selling and admin expenses were needed for brand promotion and loss in currency exchange rate, higher salary and higher depreciation provided in line with business expansion,

It further tells about the new PRC tax requirements and how if it will affect income statement.

Of course, as a share holder, you can further probe into details of operations from the income statement to inquire how the management can improve the business. But, do you really want to know so much about the operations? It might prove to be too troublesome if your objective is just want to "buy low sell high"?

One very important indicator that can be derived from income statement is the ratio between profit and shares outstanding, i.e. EPS - which can be seen here.




Financial reports

There are three financial reports that are made available to investors, namely:

1. Income statement
2. Balance sheet
3. Cash flow statement

Income statement tells you whether a company operated at a profit or a loss for the financial period. It does not measure how much the money a company received and paid during the financial period.

Balance sheet tells you the value of things a company owns and the amounts it owes on a single day, usually on the last day of the reporting period.

Cash flow statement measures cash, it tells you how much of cash a company took in and paid out during the period.

Sunday, February 15, 2009

Watch list

Name -----------------TargetBuy -----------TargetSell

China Sky -------------0.20 ---------------- 0.25
China Sport -----------0.12 (PE:2.4)--------->0.15
China HongX----------0.11(PE:3)-------------0.15
Cacola----------------0.065 (PE:1)----------- 0.10
China Essence -------- 0.225 (PE:1.66) ------0.30
China Eratat----------0.075

China Eratat - 2

The Q3 results announced yesterday was a good one.

- Revenue till Q3 has increased by 92% to 610M(RMB) compared to last year's 318M.
- Profit after tax: increased by 93% to 100M.

This has improved EPS to RMB0.24 (414M/100M, or S$0.053)) from previous RMB0.146 (60/414).

Last week's price now was S$0.095.

The PE is considered low as compared to China Hong Xing's 6.6.

If we use PE=3, then, there should be a upsize to S$0.159 (S$0.053 x 3) which is a substantial increase of at least 1.5 times (0.159/0.095) of today's value.

Buy now or regret.

NAV

NAV, Net Asset Value per share, 每股净资产值也。

Calculation:

[Total assets less (liabilities + preference capital)] / Number of shares ordinary outstanding

NAV是个理论上的价值。即:以Balance Sheet上的价值,将公司全部资产变卖,后付还公司全部负债,所剩的就是净资产值 NAV。然后,再除于全部发行股份,就是每股份之NAV。

NAV tells you something about a company, i.e. Should the company collapse, this is the potential amount of value left in the share. But, can the NAV value be released? We dont know. Because, the value of NAV is based on the value in the balance sheet and not the actual value on sale. Also, can all assets be released? E.g. Can all debt be recoverred? Can all fixed assets be sold at the value recorded in the balance sheet?

So, unless you further examine each item in the balance sheet, NAV remains a theoritical value to you.

Despite of this, NAV, however, is still a useful indicator for investors in so far as "is the share price I am paying for higher than net asset value" of a company is concerned.

Friday, February 13, 2009

STI









今日STI 沉浮于1650致1750间。跌超过2007年3800点的50%。

然而,此时非近20年来最低潮也。当1998年之亚洲金融风波袭击时,STI 猛跌800之最低谷。

时隔十年,历史重演。可歌可泣呀。

请看:

SIA 于2007高居S$20。如今身价S$10,半倍而已。

Capitaland 昔日S$8.50。如今降至S$2.70,只剩六成,可怜兮兮。

China Fish 昔日S$2.50 。如今六角身价。惨跌剩四成,不忍目睹。

机会难逢

诸位看官细心观察,不难看出98年灾难一年过后,STI 在1999年十月又回弹到2000点,后又若无其事,潇洒飘扬向上。

若历史会重演,阿顺赌今年十月乃瘟疫消逝,国泰平安,股市回弹致STI3000点之时。

正是:此时不进场,更待何时。


PE








PE is a ratio between price and earning per share (EPS).

E.g. SingTel's EPS is 0.249. It's share price is S$2.5.

Therefore SingTel's EP = 2.5/0.249 = 10.04.

Similary, EP for:
- Starhub = 1.95/0.187 = 10.43
- M1 = 1.50/0.192 = 7.81

You would notice that PEs for both SingTel and Starhub are around 10 point something whereas M1 is lower by almost 22% [(10-7.8)/10)] against standard in telecommunication industry.

If we use 10 as the PE for M1, share price of M1 would have been $1.92 (10x0.192) by now.

有何意义

PE is one of the important indicators for examining if you have bought a share at a right price based on industrial standard. This is based on assumption that PE ratio should be the same for businesses in the same industry.

PE is also useful indicator for share price projection. For example, a new company may have generated good net profit and we can use PE of its competitors to project the new company's future target share price.

In the above examples, we would interpret that either M1's may have been under priced or the others' may have been over priced.

EPS






EPS or earning per share is an indicator that tells you how much net profit is compared to total number of shares issued.

E.g. SingTel made S$3,960.2M in FY08. Number of shares: 15,920.8M

EPS = 3,960.2/15,920 = S$0.249

Similarly, EPS for:
- Starhub: 330.3/1764.423 = S$0.187
- M1: 171.8/893.878 = S$0.192

有何意义

You will notice that EPS does not tell you very much until you relate it to PE, price earning ratio.

Thursday, February 12, 2009

ST Engrg














TA shows that this is about time to buy at 2.23 which is the right support level.

Upsize potential at resistance level of 2.46 which is about 10% gain.

Further potential upsize to another resistance of 2.56 which would give a total 14.7% profit.

NAV: 0.491.

Market Capitalization

Market cap is the stock market value of a company.

Market cap= current share price x total issued shares outstanding

有何意义

It tells:
- the company's overall value in the eyes of investors.
- how significant it can influence the STI index.

Four types:
1. Big cap : >S$1B
2. Mid cap : 500M - 1B
3. Small cap : 200M to 500M
4. Micro cap: < 200M

Singtel's market cap is the largest in SGX
= 15,920,800,000 x S$2.50 (Assumed)
= S$38,802,000,000 (38,802M)

如果把新电信股全卖掉,新加坡人每人可分一万新元 (S$38,802M/3.5M)

你说多吗?

China Eratat














China Eratat is in mfg of sport footwear and apparels.

NAV: S$0.212. EPS: RMB0.169.

1H09 result seems good with revenue up 83%. Margin has been around 18%.

Share performance

Peak was at S$0.39 in April 08.

Support line: S$0.075. Note further support line at S$0.065.

Resistant line: 0.1.

Presently, it is at 0.08.

Potential substantial upsize if you buy now at 0.075 or below.

Wednesday, February 11, 2009

China XLX


















TA shows that it is at $0.4 now with MFI near 80%, stochastic above 80%.

The resistant line is at 0.44. Your upsize is probably 10% if you buy now.

All charts are moving upward suggesting selling instead of buying.

The support line is 0.34. which is the right price to buy.

China XLX is in fertiliser business. Mkt cap: S$405,000M, a small-cap.

Big-cap: >S$1B
Mid-cap: S$500m - S$1B
Small-cap: S$200M - S$500M
Micro-cap:

NAV: S$0.304. EPS: RMB0.301.


Tuesday, February 10, 2009

China Essence















Presently priced somewhere S$0.22.

Resistance line: S$0.26.

Support line: S$0.205.

30% profit if you buy now at S$0.2 and sell at resistance.

The company is in starch business. Seems quite transparent in their approach. Got a good website that holds all the investor information at :

http://www.chinaessence.com/ir.html

NAV: S$0.538. EPS: RMB0.6.

TA suggests to buy now as the curve bottomed at S$0.2.

Cacola
















Cacola peaked at S$0.45 in January 08.

NAV: S$0.257. PE:1.1. EPS:RMB0.357

Presently, it is traded at S$0.065, a price much lower than NAV.

Support line: S$0.055.

Resistant line: S$0.09.

Red MA is anticipated to cross black MA soon (My guess).

If you buy now at S$0.065, you may ripe 38% profit.

Technically, all charts are in favour of buy.

China Sport















China sport was sold for S$0.7 last year this time.

The present $0.12 is the lowest supporting line.

If it goes up to resistant line at $0.165, you ripe a profit of 37%.

The Bollinger band indicates the opportunity and stochastic is moving upward to 50% from 20%.

MACD's blue is crossing red line soon to go upward.

Daily transaction is around 3k, on the low side now.

Research
(RMB)

Year---Revenue-----ProfitB4Tax-Mgin--EPS
3Q08 --1,354.592m--211.369m--15.6%--0.23
4Q07--1,207.050m--212.572m--17.61%--0.46

NAV: S$0.241
PE: 3.2

My take:
This is a potential star as NAV is higher than S$0.12.


BACKGROUND
The Company is incorporated in Bermuda on 27 March 2007.

China-Sports International Limited is principally engaged in the design, manufacture and sale of sports fashion footwear and the design and sale of sports fashion apparel under their YELl brand.

YELl products are designed for a broad range of activities mainly for consumers aged between 12 to 30 years. The Company introduces over 100 new footwear designs at each new season's launch to capitalise on changing market trends. China Sports' footwear caters to specific activities such as basketball, running and hiking and other leisure activities. YELl products are sold in China through its local distributors and exported through its exporters to countries in Europe, the Middle East, South America, Asia and South Africa. The Company also manufactures footwear for OEM customers under their international brands such as the "Kappa" brand.

China Sky
















去年今日,ChinaFish市价S$2.50。世界风暴波及鱼池,如今价仅S$0.225。

支持线为 S$0.19。

阻力线S$0.34。若顺利挺进,利益50%非凡。

Stochastic, MACD, MFI 皆无大忌。

按图索冀,以里推测, 此时抄它底,乃是时候。

Other observations:

1. NAV: S$0.849 is higher than the price.
2. 3Q08 revenue seems consistent profit of above 30%
3. It is in chemical fibre business, a sector which is in high demand in China.
4. EPS: RMB0.549
5. NAV: S$0.849. An attractive indicator for buying.

Monday, February 9, 2009

China Hong Xing
















Good "M" shap for buy at 0.18, if possible, now.

The upsize is good at the resistant line of 0.225.

Other indicators seem pointing to up.

China Hong Xing is in sport shoes business. NAV: 0.326 which is about the share price now.

Potential for future only based on TA.

Got to study its fundamentals.

Sunday, February 8, 2009

Biosensors




















9 Feb 09 - floating around 0.355.

Observations:
1. Resistant line: 0.375 which is 6% above the present price.
2. Support line: 0.32, 11% below the present price.
3. There seems to be a up channel trend
4. Bollinger band started to form on 2 Feb indicating higher transaction

Research:
- 1H09 has posted US$9.744m pre-tax profit since loss of the past 3 years. Noted its strong revenue increase to US$76m from previous US$23.6 on 1H-1H. 2008's revenue: US$44.3m.
- After-tax loss US$1.237 resulting EPS of (US$001)
- NAV: S$0.142
- Total assets: US$196.533m
- total liability: US$96.627
- Shares investment said the remaining 2H2009 would be unprofitable

(Source: varied)

My take:
1. Both MFI and MACD not clear cut.
2. Wait for one or two more weeks. Good buy when it hits near support line, e.g. 0.32.

牛转乾坤吗?

















鼠牛交接之际, STI 跌破5年来谷底,逼近1500点,危在旦夕。

紧接着, 各国首长纷纷推出救济配套,众志成墙,力挽狂澜。

我希望这场修修补补会有作用。

牛转乾坤吗?我希望会。

我胡乱猜测STI 会是:

第二季2000
第三,四季2300